We’re Living in a Pandemic: Now What Do We Do?

Your swine flu post rightly notes that the situation could get a lot worse if swine flu mutates and returns in a more virulent second wave -- which is exactly what happened in the infamous 1918 pandemic, which was also an H1N1 virus.

But that's not the worst case scenario. There are two new flu viruses in circulation now: H1N1 swine flu, which transmits easily from person to person but isn't very virulent (less than one victim in a thousand dies); and H5N1 bird flu, which has a very hard time transmitting from person to person but is incredibly virulent (61% of those who have gotten it so far have died). The nightmare scenario in the minds of many virologists: swine flu and bird flu "reassort" -- mix-and-match their genetic material -- producing a new virus with the transmissibility of swine flu and the virulence of bird flu. That would be truly cataclysmic -- much, much worse than the 1918 pandemic!

Meanwhile, the comment you attributed to me -- "don't worry very much about the current situation" -- was an accurate quotation but misleading out of context. Compared to what might happen, what is happening now isn't worth worrying much about. But any disease that can send healthy young people to the intensive care unit should be taken seriously. Certainly anyone who is already coping with a serious health problem should worry about the combined effects of that problem plus swine flu. I don't wear masks, even in crowded places and even though I live in New Jersey, where the number of cases is still on the increase. But my wife sometimes does. And if I had an immuno-suppression problem, as the child of a previous poster does, I would think seriously about ways to reduce my vulnerability without ruining my life … including masks.

Today's WHO declaration of Pandemic Phase 6 is no reason to worry. It means simply that the rest of the world is catching up to the U.S. But swine flu itself belongs on the list of illnesses we worry about, take reasonable precautions against, and go on living our lives in spite of.

My real passion is the need for more preparedness against the possibility of a severe pandemic. Worrying about swine flu as it exists today is a lot less useful, I think, than worrying about swine flu as it might mutate some months from now. A severe pandemic could easily disrupt supply chains, leading to shortages of all sorts of essential supplies. In an earlier story, I told you people should buy enough food, medications, and other supplies to be able to stay home for a week -- in case you're too sick to go shopping, or there are too many sick people out there for you to want to go shopping, or the stores have run out of what you need. A week really isn't enough. My wife and I try to have enough of key supplies to be autonomous for several months. And the time to prepare for a severe pandemic obviously isn’t after one has arrived. The time to prepare -- cognitively, emotionally, and logistically -- is now, when all we face so far is a mild (WHO says “moderate”) pandemic.

Peter M. Sandman of NJ 9:28PM June 11, 2009

Sounds like my usual diet.

JimF of PA 5:46PM June 11, 2009